Be Prepared 1-B. The Impacts of Peak Oil

Posted by admin on February 19th, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | No Comments »

A powerful, balanced introduction to what happens when the world’s oil production goes into decline. Later videos look at the impacts on Australia in particular, other global stresses such as our unstable economic system, and how best to prepare for the coming changes. These videos are all part of the Be Prepared Crash Course from http://www.BePreparedEducation.com.au

Duration : 0:8:56

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Crash Course: Chapter 17b – Energy Budgeting (1 of 2) by Chris Martenson

Posted by admin on February 13th, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | 7 Comments »

Chapter 17b – Energy Budgeting (1 of 2): Petroleum has supplied the surplus energy that has allowed for social complexity, industrialization, and the modern conveniences that we enjoy. In this chapter, Dr. Chris Martenson explains that in the future our supply of surplus energy will decline due to the fact that increasing amounts of energy will be required to produce new energy. When poor net energy (ERoEI) returns are paired with peak oil production, it points to a return to a less complex society.

http://www.chrismartenson.com

Duration : 0:6:48

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Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 5]

Posted by admin on January 28th, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | 1 Comment »

(April 4th, 2008) Congressman Roscoe Bartlett [R-MD] takes the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives to speak about Energy.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 1]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lwkyqFB-34
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 2]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=506-2_zxYns
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 3]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyliwrgbLvo
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 4]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwEZqOek0KQ
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 5]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNYNuGlDXLo
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 6]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llQIfZXt_88
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 7]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvAdLvaCx70

TRANSCRIPT
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=8519674

Not exactly Jeffersonian, is he? Keep in mind Ron Paul’s tip: price of gold and price of oil, parallel lines, fiat-money and price of oil, a roller coaster (fasten your paper-belts).

HIGHLIGHTS

- Ratio of energy available and growth in population… an imbalance between supply and demand [and a debased currency].

- Peak of oil production and compound interest. The U.S. has 2% of the known reserves of oil in the world and uses a fourth [25%] of the world’s oil. China is buying up oil reserves wherever they can find them.

- The Hirsch Report by SAIC: The world has never faced a problem like this [Psycho screeching violins].

- Alternatives. Nuclear. Solar and wind energy. Wood. Conventional hydro. Alcohol fuel. The hydrogen economy and the corn ethanol bubble. Geothermal. The tar sands in Canada. The tides. Oil shales. Coal. Breeder reactors. Nuclear fusion. Biomass.

- The Drive Act [will make things worse]. Can’t get no satisfaction.

SIDE NOTE: $42 a gallon

“Last year alone, the American forces in Iraq burned through more than 1.1 billion gallons of fuel… A study produced by the U.S. Military Academy estimated that delivering one gallon of fuel to U.S. soldiers in Iraq cost American taxpayers $42 — and that doesn’t include the costs of the fuel itself… the U.S. is spending $923 million per week on fuel-related logistics in Iraq.”
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/oil-iraq-war/1208

Duration : 0:7:28

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Toyota’s Jim Lentz Predicts Peak Oil by 2020

Posted by admin on January 21st, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | 12 Comments »

Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2009/11/17/The_Future_of_the_Auto_Industry_with_Toyotas_James_Lentz

James Lentz, President and COO of Toyota Motor Sales, predicts “we will probably see peak oil sometime around the end of the next decade.” Foreseeing a steady rise in the cost of gasoline, Lentz advocates for the continued development of alternatives to oil such as battery power and fuel cells.

—–

Though the auto industry seemed on the brink of collapse, the recent Cash for Clunkers program arguably helped to jump-start the car economy and get wheels moving again. But what does this really mean for cars and drivers today?

During the recession, will the demand for smarter, cleaner models continue, or will people choose to skimp on driving altogether? Industry veteran James Lentz will discuss the future of cars in America. – Commonwealth Club of California

Jim Lentz is president and chief operating officer of Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc. Lentz is also a member of the companys board of directors, and serves in a global advisory capacity as managing officer for the parent company Toyota Motor Corporation in Japan.

He has overall responsibility for sales, marketing and distribution for Toyota, Scion and Lexus products in the United States, in addition to overseeing all corporate matters at TMS.

Lentz attended the University of Denver where he earned a bachelor’s degree in marketing and economics and a Masters in Business Administration Finance.

Duration : 0:2:5

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Should we give the Kurds independence from Iraq? They want to triple oil production?

Posted by admin on January 18th, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | 6 Comments »

Kurdish official: Iraq should sharply boost oil output
By BARBARA SURK – 4 days ago
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iraq should boost crude oil export capacity to 6 million barrels a day, nearly three times the amount the country currently sends to international markets, a top Kurdish political leader urged Tuesday.
The goal set by Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region, gave no proposed timetables and would far exceed even the nation’s peak oil output shortly before the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But the Kurds and the Iraqi government are locked in a dispute over the rights to sign oil contracts, and export levels remain a critical issue for both sides.
"We think Iraq needs to export more oil," Barzani told a news conference.
He added that talks over Iraq’s long-awaited oil law will resume within two weeks in Baghdad, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
It was from Associated Press.
We can give them independence. If we pull the plug on Iraq, everyone in the existing government will have one foot in the grave.

yes, that is the biden plan to federalize Iraq inton 3 states. However, this would piss off our Ally Turkey who has a large Kurd population themselves, and they dont want a Kurd State on their border

Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

Posted by admin on January 14th, 2010 and filed under peak oil production | 13 Comments »

Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, talked yesterday with Bloomberg’s Rhonda Schaffler about the need to address energy use, his view that global supply has peaked and the likelihood oil prices could reach as much as $300 a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)

Duration : 0:5:40

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Peak Oil – Matt Simmons Part 1

Posted by admin on December 31st, 2009 and filed under peak oil production | 2 Comments »

Oil Expert Matt Simmons on oil production, oil reserves, the coming energy crisis, depletion, north sea oil, tar sands, natural gas, deceptive practices, the economy, Chavez, US oil policy.

Duration : 0:8:2

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Richard Duncan speaks on Peak Oil and Olduvai Theory

Posted by admin on December 26th, 2009 and filed under peak oil production | No Comments »

Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man, speaks on Peak Oil and Olduvai Theory at a Social Contract conference on September 30, 2007: www.TheSocialContract.com .

Richard Duncan presents Peak Oil data, which indicate that we are at or near Peak Oil. We have been used to a 100% increase in world oil production since 1970; that’s what we’re used to, that’s what we want, and that’s what we’ll never get.

Geologist Walter Youngquist says we’re now in depletion dominance: it dominates technological change, investment capital – it dominates everything.

Think of the Olduvai Theory this way: you have a video of world history from pre-history until 2010. Then you stop the camera and then you play the video backwards. As awful as this is, one must remember that the Copernican Throry was rejected for over 200 years before being accepted. The Olduvai Theory explains how population, immigration, etc., will adjust to the local ecological carrying capacity worldwide, and that localities will be completely dependent upon solar energy.

For more presentations at this Social Contract event, see
Mike Hethmon, IRLI, part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPzstO-xWR8
Mike Hethmon, IRLI, part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMgvDwwYo1E
Jim Edwards on the SPP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZcJIJJIs8E

For more information on the Social Contract, see http://www.TheSocialContract.com

Duration : 0:8:22

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Peak Oil: Gas Prices, Supply Depletion & Energy Crisis: 5of5

Posted by admin on December 22nd, 2009 and filed under peak oil production | No Comments »

We are entering the Peak Oil era. The growth of oil production is slowing, forcing up oil and gasoline prices, firing inflation, driving unemployment, straining our global economy, and threatening to collapse our entire system. Teacher Aaron Wissner, highlights the impacts, underlying problem, and solutions. This is part 5 of 5 in a one-hour presentation. See the full one-hour video at LocalFuture.org. Also, at YouTube, see the summary with great resources, web sites, video clips, and detailed background on Peak Oil and its impacts.

Duration : 0:10:0

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Introduction to Peak OIL part 2 of 4

Posted by admin on December 18th, 2009 and filed under peak oil production | No Comments »

Introduction to Peak OIL
Quotation
No limits whatever are placed to
the productions of the earth;
they may increase forever.

~Reverend Thomas Malthus

Thesis:
The next 30 years will probably be different from the last 30 years.

Agenda

o History of energy consumption
o Energy in the modern world
o Countries passed Peak
o Future energy production
o EROEI
o Modern Infrastructure Dependencies
o Mechanized Agriculture
o Banking, Finance and Growth
o Conclusions

History of Energy Consumption

o Wide spread use of heating coal between 1400s and 1600s in Western Europe and China.
o England develops railway technology, and this enables them to become the super-power of the 1600s.
o Initially coal is simply picked up off the ground. Then it is mined from surface level exposed coal beds. Miners begin to dig deeper, causing mines to flood with water.

History of Energy Consumption

The Atmospheric Engine is invented by Thomas Newcomen in 1712

History of Energy Consumption

Initially, horses are used to carry a `train of wagons, along wooden rails.
The picture on the right is famously known as the Walton Wagonway.

History of Energy Consumption
Introduction of Coal Transport

First steam locomotive (coal) is built by Richard Trevithick in 1804

Coal Based Agriculture
o Steam Technology quickly develops into a technology explosion and there are applications in a wide variety of industries
o Steam Technology becomes very successful for Agriculture

Ex-Edinburgh Corporation Aveling & Porter
Steam Tractor
Important Milestones
o In 1858 the first commercial OIL well is drilled by James Miller Williams in Black Creek Ontario.
o In 1859 Edwin Drake drilled the first oil well in the United States.

Black Creek
AKA
Oil Springs, Petrolia, Ontario, v. 1870

Important Milestones
o Initially `Rock OIL is used to power OIL lamps.
o Crude oil replaces whale oil industry.
o Nicolaus Otto built the first practical four-stroke internal combustion engine called the “Otto Cycle Engine,
o In 1891 Herbert Akroyd Stuart built his oil engine, leasing rights to Hornsby of England
o The Wright brothers, Orville and Wilbur invented and built the world’s first successful airplane on December 17, 1903.
o The Model T set 1908 as the historic year that the automobile came into popular usage.
o In 1911, Winston Churchill commissions the construction of new and larger warships, the development of tanks, and the switch from coal to oil in the Royal Navy.
o This brings us up to the modern age.

Dr. Marion King Hubbert
Famously developed what is how known as Hubberts Peak
o Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (a basic component of Peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as “M. King Hubbert” or “King Hubbert”.

Total Energy
Countries that have passed Peak
EROEI
o In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), ERoEI, EROI (Energy Return On Investment) or less frequently, eMergy, is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource.
o When the EROEI of a resource is equal to or lower than 1, that energy source becomes an “energy sink”, and can no longer be used as a primary source of energy.

EROEI
Source: The OIL Drum
Modern Infrastructure Dependencies
o Cement
o Transportation
o Food
o Computers
o Everything else

Mechanized Agriculture

Banking, Finance and Debt
Conclusions
o The next 30 years are likely to be much different than the last 30 years.
o Cheap and Abundant Fossil energy is a historic relic of the past.
o Energy prices are likely to become more volatile in the future
o Food prices, and even food availability may become more unpredictable in the future.

Duration : 0:7:49

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