Oil Production » peak oil production

With Peak Oil rapidly approaching that will cause oil shortages and price hikes and eventually resource wars?

admin — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 21:34:31 +0000

how much difference will deep water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico or Alaska make?

Oil production in the continental U.S. occurred in the 1970’s. Once the planet hits peak oil production, if it has not already, supplies will begin to dwindle and recession will be the order of the day as economic growth slows.

With this inevitable peak in the near future, should we not be doing everything possible to lessen our appetite for oil rather than chasing the last drops>5 4 3 2 1 0 Cold Turkey.

The Peak Oil was "rapidly approaching" for the past 50 years or so…

Why does our approximation of when peak oil will occur correlate to our political position?

admin — Tue, 20 Apr 2010 00:07:24 +0000

Peak oil is the time at which oil production reaches it’s highest rate. After peak oil, production will never reach the same high levels, but will continually diminish. As with any finite resource, this is guaranteed to happen some day. But while some estimate that it will happen within 10 years, or may have already happened, others estimate that it won’t happen for hundreds of years. The actual time left before peak oil depends solely on how much oil is in the ground (unless you think that the population will voluntarily start consuming less energy while supply is high and price is low).

You would think this would be a question to be answered through careful consideration of scientific evidence. But in reality, almost all conservatives think peak oil is 100+ years into the future, while almost all liberals think that it is less than 20 years out. If everyone made their reasoned determination on such matters first, and then affiliated with the appropriate party, this correlation would make sense, but I don’t think that is how this correlation developed. I think most everyone determines when they think peak oil will occur based on what they prefer politically. Why do people tend to think that facts change based on their political beliefs?
You know, Joe Finkle, it sounded like you were going to say something intelligent, and then you went the other way with it. It sounds like you hold some idealistic notion of science and scientist that cannot be defined in real world terms. The FDA is made up of professional scientists in medical research. School boards are made up of education professionals. Your examples are actually counter-examples. What "scientists" do you propose should make these decisions if not the very people in these positions? I think what you demonstrate adequately is that politicians are not the only people blinded by their political opinions. The problem is at the root, in the people they represent – you.
I like the way you think brown. However, remember that this is on an exponential scale, so you have to take the average of the logs instead of a linear average, which puts us at about 2054.

Peak oil, like Malthusian fears of overpopulation, has always been right on the horizon and it always will be. It’s part of our survival instinct to be on the lookout for threats, but people who try to predict the future always make assumptions and calculations based on current technologies and policies so they always have to be readjusted.

People’s political ideologies are defined by how they see threats to society, and they look for statistics to support their views.

Conservatives fear threats from the outside (communism, islamic extremism, etc) or a corruption of the existing order that moves away from an idealized vision of the past.

Progressives fear that the existing order is corrupt and unsustainable and will eventually fall apart without change.

Moderates think that although some things need to be changed, things could be worse and the sky certainly isn’t falling yet.

Be Prepared 1-B. The Impacts of Peak Oil

admin — Sat, 20 Feb 2010 03:55:50 +0000

A powerful, balanced introduction to what happens when the world’s oil production goes into decline. Later videos look at the impacts on Australia in particular, other global stresses such as our unstable economic system, and how best to prepare for the coming changes. These videos are all part of the Be Prepared Crash Course from http://www.BePreparedEducation.com.au

Duration : 0:8:56

[youtube NyKl9gDYDHo]

Crash Course: Chapter 17b – Energy Budgeting (1 of 2) by Chris Martenson

admin — Sun, 14 Feb 2010 04:17:05 +0000

Chapter 17b – Energy Budgeting (1 of 2): Petroleum has supplied the surplus energy that has allowed for social complexity, industrialization, and the modern conveniences that we enjoy. In this chapter, Dr. Chris Martenson explains that in the future our supply of surplus energy will decline due to the fact that increasing amounts of energy will be required to produce new energy. When poor net energy (ERoEI) returns are paired with peak oil production, it points to a return to a less complex society.

http://www.chrismartenson.com

Duration : 0:6:48

[youtube ASO8izbYNYc]

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 5]

admin — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 14:53:43 +0000

(April 4th, 2008) Congressman Roscoe Bartlett [R-MD] takes the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives to speak about Energy.

Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 1]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lwkyqFB-34
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 2]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=506-2_zxYns
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 3]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyliwrgbLvo
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 4]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwEZqOek0KQ
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 5]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNYNuGlDXLo
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 6]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llQIfZXt_88
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett on Peak Oil [Part 7]
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvAdLvaCx70

TRANSCRIPT
http://www.c-spanarchives.org/congress/?q=node/77531&id=8519674

Not exactly Jeffersonian, is he? Keep in mind Ron Paul’s tip: price of gold and price of oil, parallel lines, fiat-money and price of oil, a roller coaster (fasten your paper-belts).

HIGHLIGHTS

- Ratio of energy available and growth in population… an imbalance between supply and demand [and a debased currency].

- Peak of oil production and compound interest. The U.S. has 2% of the known reserves of oil in the world and uses a fourth [25%] of the world’s oil. China is buying up oil reserves wherever they can find them.

- The Hirsch Report by SAIC: The world has never faced a problem like this [Psycho screeching violins].

- Alternatives. Nuclear. Solar and wind energy. Wood. Conventional hydro. Alcohol fuel. The hydrogen economy and the corn ethanol bubble. Geothermal. The tar sands in Canada. The tides. Oil shales. Coal. Breeder reactors. Nuclear fusion. Biomass.

- The Drive Act [will make things worse]. Can’t get no satisfaction.

SIDE NOTE: $42 a gallon

“Last year alone, the American forces in Iraq burned through more than 1.1 billion gallons of fuel… A study produced by the U.S. Military Academy estimated that delivering one gallon of fuel to U.S. soldiers in Iraq cost American taxpayers $42 — and that doesn’t include the costs of the fuel itself… the U.S. is spending $923 million per week on fuel-related logistics in Iraq.”
http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/oil-iraq-war/1208

Duration : 0:7:28

[youtube QNYNuGlDXLo]

Toyota’s Jim Lentz Predicts Peak Oil by 2020

admin — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 01:33:35 +0000

Complete video at: http://fora.tv/2009/11/17/The_Future_of_the_Auto_Industry_with_Toyotas_James_Lentz

James Lentz, President and COO of Toyota Motor Sales, predicts “we will probably see peak oil sometime around the end of the next decade.” Foreseeing a steady rise in the cost of gasoline, Lentz advocates for the continued development of alternatives to oil such as battery power and fuel cells.

—–

Though the auto industry seemed on the brink of collapse, the recent Cash for Clunkers program arguably helped to jump-start the car economy and get wheels moving again. But what does this really mean for cars and drivers today?

During the recession, will the demand for smarter, cleaner models continue, or will people choose to skimp on driving altogether? Industry veteran James Lentz will discuss the future of cars in America. – Commonwealth Club of California

Jim Lentz is president and chief operating officer of Toyota Motor Sales (TMS), U.S.A., Inc. Lentz is also a member of the companys board of directors, and serves in a global advisory capacity as managing officer for the parent company Toyota Motor Corporation in Japan.

He has overall responsibility for sales, marketing and distribution for Toyota, Scion and Lexus products in the United States, in addition to overseeing all corporate matters at TMS.

Lentz attended the University of Denver where he earned a bachelor’s degree in marketing and economics and a Masters in Business Administration Finance.

Duration : 0:2:5

[youtube yVEZE2vM2oM]

Should we give the Kurds independence from Iraq? They want to triple oil production?

admin — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 07:17:59 +0000

Kurdish official: Iraq should sharply boost oil output
By BARBARA SURK – 4 days ago
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iraq should boost crude oil export capacity to 6 million barrels a day, nearly three times the amount the country currently sends to international markets, a top Kurdish political leader urged Tuesday.
The goal set by Nechirvan Barzani, the prime minister of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdish region, gave no proposed timetables and would far exceed even the nation’s peak oil output shortly before the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. But the Kurds and the Iraqi government are locked in a dispute over the rights to sign oil contracts, and export levels remain a critical issue for both sides.
"We think Iraq needs to export more oil," Barzani told a news conference.
He added that talks over Iraq’s long-awaited oil law will resume within two weeks in Baghdad, according to Dow Jones Newswires.
It was from Associated Press.
We can give them independence. If we pull the plug on Iraq, everyone in the existing government will have one foot in the grave.

yes, that is the biden plan to federalize Iraq inton 3 states. However, this would piss off our Ally Turkey who has a large Kurd population themselves, and they dont want a Kurd State on their border

Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

admin — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 16:33:34 +0000

Matthew Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International in Houston, talked yesterday with Bloomberg’s Rhonda Schaffler about the need to address energy use, his view that global supply has peaked and the likelihood oil prices could reach as much as $300 a barrel. (Source: Bloomberg)

Duration : 0:5:40

[youtube 4IwtAQzrfiw]

Peak Oil – Matt Simmons Part 1

admin — Thu, 31 Dec 2009 05:11:39 +0000

Oil Expert Matt Simmons on oil production, oil reserves, the coming energy crisis, depletion, north sea oil, tar sands, natural gas, deceptive practices, the economy, Chavez, US oil policy.

Duration : 0:8:2

[youtube F5LOlYEQ1No]

Richard Duncan speaks on Peak Oil and Olduvai Theory

admin — Sat, 26 Dec 2009 23:40:38 +0000

Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man, speaks on Peak Oil and Olduvai Theory at a Social Contract conference on September 30, 2007: www.TheSocialContract.com .

Richard Duncan presents Peak Oil data, which indicate that we are at or near Peak Oil. We have been used to a 100% increase in world oil production since 1970; that’s what we’re used to, that’s what we want, and that’s what we’ll never get.

Geologist Walter Youngquist says we’re now in depletion dominance: it dominates technological change, investment capital – it dominates everything.

Think of the Olduvai Theory this way: you have a video of world history from pre-history until 2010. Then you stop the camera and then you play the video backwards. As awful as this is, one must remember that the Copernican Throry was rejected for over 200 years before being accepted. The Olduvai Theory explains how population, immigration, etc., will adjust to the local ecological carrying capacity worldwide, and that localities will be completely dependent upon solar energy.

For more presentations at this Social Contract event, see
Mike Hethmon, IRLI, part 1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oPzstO-xWR8
Mike Hethmon, IRLI, part 2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMgvDwwYo1E
Jim Edwards on the SPP: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BZcJIJJIs8E

For more information on the Social Contract, see http://www.TheSocialContract.com

Duration : 0:8:22

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