Peak Oil theory predicts growth in crude oil production, a peak in production represented by a plateau and then a decline in production. The world entered the peak oil production plateu in May 2005 and and appears to have exited after peaking again in August 2009.
Zarathustra examines a chart found at The Oil Drum.
If growth had occured as might have been expected from previous decades, world crude oil production would be about 87 Mbpd. The production plateau was at about 73 Mbpd. Production is now under 71 Mbpd.
Are we past peak? Only time will tell!
http://www.theoildrum.com/
Duration : 0:5:0
[youtube NIrPrDNj5VM]
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
fully* regulated
fully* regulated
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
I’m not suggesting …
I’m not suggesting anything. I’m telling you that how much oil being produced is full regulated and controlled. and that directly effects prices, and is not a way to measure peak oil. It isn’t.
Your chart in no way reflects how much oil there is, was, or will be. It just doesn’t.
Those that squawk the loudest about peak oil, are the ones that have one eye shut towards better solutions than burning fossil fuels.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
Saudi Arabia has …
Saudi Arabia has been announcing that they will increase production for a couple of years now. Don’t hold your breath.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
Actually Saudi …
Actually Saudi Arabia just annonced they would increase production a couple of days ago, and prices are moving down. Probably partly also because of other bad market news recently.
But there’s no doubt in my mind the long term trend is up, up, up… No other way to go with the details of Peak Oil staring you in the face.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
Saudi Arabia is …
Saudi Arabia is PAST peak and has been for a long time. They keep saying they can produce more oil IF there is a demand for it, but what they don’t tell you is that the additional oil they have to offer is SOUR. The cheap, light, sweet crude from onland fields is definitely PAST peak. They have offshore wells now, but they will only operate them IF the price goes up. Offshore costs a lot to operate and we will see production go up a bit IF price drive, but we will NEVER see 74 MBpd again.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
The world economy …
The world economy is still in a recession. As far as I know Saudi Arabia has reduced its oil extraction to keep the prices for oil up. Other ‘producer’ nations might do the same. Oil prices and oil extraction are certainly in some way a function of the economy. Nonetheless I am convinced that we entered the downslope of the global Hubbert curve for conventional oil last year. A new age has started. We shouldn’t waste our time with the illusion that there are huge undiscovered oil fields left.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
DBG, you’re a …
DBG, you’re a bright person but I’m thinking you haven’t looked closely enough at the Peak Oil issue.
Are you suggesting that an entire planet has slowed down oil production for the last five years so that the price would go up?
This isn’t a theory with a one dimension, ie production. There is science behind this. Production is just one indicator.
The people who are the loudest voices in Peak Oil are not economists, they are petroleum geologists, engineers and industry experts.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
I love data.
I love data.
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
but most have been …
but most have been tricked, and would not stand for that. Example2. We can solve our energy “crisis” right now, the problem lies in that success is measured by how much one can hoard-money/resources/property, in a world of abundance. The ideology surrounding preservation of our species, well…actually all species in life that support our fragile ecosystem, these out way the measures of success that have been indoctrinated.
thx 4 the post =)
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
Lindsey Williams …
Lindsey Williams would disagree.
I would say production as little to do with peak.
Its highly regulated to control prices, so production is not a reliable way to measure peak.
but nevertheless it’s not a smart way to go. Advanced geothermal systems can replace so much. we have this tech now. but governments think to small, and the people live in fear of government (which is only themselves) Example. a one world currency removes te power from the central exchange banks(FED)
October 29th, 2009 at 3:02 am
Very interesting. …
Very interesting. There’s no way for costs to stay down as demand exceeds supply. For now, we are probably benefiting, so to speak, from the deflationary pressures in the economy. If/When all that money the banks have stashed at the Fed makes its way into the economy, it looks like prices for oil and at the pump in particular will skyrocket.