Introduction to Peak OIL
Quotation
No limits whatever are placed to
the productions of the earth;
they may increase forever.
~Reverend Thomas Malthus
Thesis:
The next 30 years will probably be different from the last 30 years.
Agenda
o History of energy consumption
o Energy in the modern world
o Countries passed Peak
o Future energy production
o EROEI
o Modern Infrastructure Dependencies
o Mechanized Agriculture
o Banking, Finance and Growth
o Conclusions
History of Energy Consumption
o Wide spread use of heating coal between 1400s and 1600s in Western Europe and China.
o England develops railway technology, and this enables them to become the super-power of the 1600s.
o Initially coal is simply picked up off the ground. Then it is mined from surface level exposed coal beds. Miners begin to dig deeper, causing mines to flood with water.
History of Energy Consumption
The Atmospheric Engine is invented by Thomas Newcomen in 1712
History of Energy Consumption
Initially, horses are used to carry a `train of wagons, along wooden rails.
The picture on the right is famously known as the Walton Wagonway.
History of Energy Consumption
Introduction of Coal Transport
First steam locomotive (coal) is built by Richard Trevithick in 1804
Coal Based Agriculture
o Steam Technology quickly develops into a technology explosion and there are applications in a wide variety of industries
o Steam Technology becomes very successful for Agriculture
Ex-Edinburgh Corporation Aveling & Porter
Steam Tractor
Important Milestones
o In 1858 the first commercial OIL well is drilled by James Miller Williams in Black Creek Ontario.
o In 1859 Edwin Drake drilled the first oil well in the United States.
Black Creek
AKA
Oil Springs, Petrolia, Ontario, v. 1870
Important Milestones
o Initially `Rock OIL is used to power OIL lamps.
o Crude oil replaces whale oil industry.
o Nicolaus Otto built the first practical four-stroke internal combustion engine called the “Otto Cycle Engine,
o In 1891 Herbert Akroyd Stuart built his oil engine, leasing rights to Hornsby of England
o The Wright brothers, Orville and Wilbur invented and built the world’s first successful airplane on December 17, 1903.
o The Model T set 1908 as the historic year that the automobile came into popular usage.
o In 1911, Winston Churchill commissions the construction of new and larger warships, the development of tanks, and the switch from coal to oil in the Royal Navy.
o This brings us up to the modern age.
Dr. Marion King Hubbert
Famously developed what is how known as Hubberts Peak
o Marion King Hubbert (October 5, 1903 October 11, 1989) was a geoscientist who worked at the Shell research lab in Houston, Texas. He made several important contributions to geology, geophysics, and petroleum geology, most notably the Hubbert curve and Hubbert peak theory (a basic component of Peak oil), with important political ramifications. He was often referred to as “M. King Hubbert” or “King Hubbert”.
Total Energy
Countries that have passed Peak
EROEI
o In physics, energy economics and ecological energetics, EROEI (Energy Returned on Energy Invested), ERoEI, EROI (Energy Return On Investment) or less frequently, eMergy, is the ratio of the amount of usable energy acquired from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy expended to obtain that energy resource.
o When the EROEI of a resource is equal to or lower than 1, that energy source becomes an “energy sink”, and can no longer be used as a primary source of energy.
EROEI
Source: The OIL Drum
Modern Infrastructure Dependencies
o Cement
o Transportation
o Food
o Computers
o Everything else
Mechanized Agriculture
Banking, Finance and Debt
Conclusions
o The next 30 years are likely to be much different than the last 30 years.
o Cheap and Abundant Fossil energy is a historic relic of the past.
o Energy prices are likely to become more volatile in the future
o Food prices, and even food availability may become more unpredictable in the future.
Duration : 0:7:49
[youtube 5zwHZBlKpsg]